A blended view of how much of our digital revenue is coming from first-time buyers — and what that's telling us about the business.
Brand: Bare BonesChannels: Amazon US + Shopify (DTC)Period: Apr 2025 – Mar 2026Sources: Amazon Brand Analytics, Shopify Analytics
Amazon Shopify
Avg Blended NTB Share
53.3%
12-month, dollar-weighted
Peak NTB Share
60.1%
January 2026
Latest NTB Share
51.9%
March 2026 — back to baseline
12-Mo Digital Sales
$18.5M
$9.87M from new customers
Channel Mix · 12-Month Revenue
Amazon · 92.4%
7.6%
Amazon
$17.11M
52.3% from new customers
Shopify
$1.42M
65.7% from new customers
Amazon does the volume. Shopify does the acquisition.
Shopify is just under 8% of digital revenue, but two out of every three Shopify dollars comes from a first-time buyer — well above Amazon's 52%. The two channels play distinct roles in the funnel.
Blended NTB Share Over Time
Toggle to see the trend, the channel-level $ breakdown, or the channels side-by-side.
Channel Personalities
Same metric, two very different stories. Strategy should reflect that.
Amazon · Volume Engine
52.3%
A balanced book — half new, half repeat. Subscribe & Save and Prime habits anchor a real returning base.
12-Mo Sales
$17.11M
NTB Sales
$8.94M
Repeat Rate
11–13%
Shopify · Acquisition Engine
65.7%
Heavily top-of-funnel. Two-thirds of dollars come from net-new buyers — the brand discovery surface.
12-Mo Sales
$1.42M
NTB Sales
$930K
Peak NTB %
76.9%
The Story in Three Phases
The blended trend moved through three distinct chapters — both channels rhymed.
Phase 1 · Apr – Sep 2025
The Summer Plateau
Blended NTB share drifted from 53% to ~48%. Existing customers carried more of the load on Amazon, while Shopify stayed firmly in acquisition mode (~58–63%).
Blended NTB %: 52.6% → 48.4%
Phase 2 · Oct 2025 – Jan 2026
Holiday Acceleration
Blended NTB share surged to 60.1% in January. Both channels spiked in lockstep — Shopify peaked at 77% NTB in December; Amazon at 59% in January.
Digital NTB Sales: $678K → $1.31M
Phase 3 · Feb – Mar 2026
Q1 Normalization
Blended NTB share unwinding toward the 12-month baseline. Shopify cooled faster than Amazon — the holiday acquisition surge is fading on schedule.
Blended NTB %: 60.1% → 51.9%
Strategic Read for Leadership
What the blended channel view means for how we run the business.
Digital is acquisition-led. 53% of every digital dollar — and 60% at peak — comes from first-time buyers. The channels are working as a top-of-funnel system, not a retention machine.
Channel roles are clearly differentiated. Shopify discovers and acquires (66% NTB share). Amazon converts and retains (52% NTB, anchored by Subscribe & Save). The strategic question isn't which is "better" — it's whether the handoff between them is intentional.
The Q4 cohort is a referendum coming due. Roughly 47K new digital customers entered in Jan 2026. If they don't materialize as repeat sales by mid-2026, the model is leakier than topline suggests — and the answer is mostly on Amazon, where retention infrastructure exists.
Shopify is small but strategically outsized. 7.6% of revenue but the highest-quality acquisition signal we have. Don't optimize Shopify for repeat — optimize it for high-intent first-time conversions and feed those buyers into Amazon's S&S flywheel where retention compounds.
Watch list: Amazon repeat purchase rate (currently flat at 11–13%), Shopify subscriber attach rate, and cross-channel customer overlap — we currently have no visibility into how many Shopify buyers later purchase on Amazon, or vice versa.
Channel Detail
Switch between blended, Amazon-only, and Shopify-only monthly data.
Methodology & Notes
Amazon NTB: "New-to-Brand Customer Sales" from Amazon Brand Analytics — revenue attributable to customers making their first-ever purchase of any Bare Bones ASIN in that month.
Shopify NTB: Sales from Shopify's "First-time customer" segment, based on the New Customers Over Time (No Free TTS Samples) export — excludes free-sample-only orders to keep the comparison apples-to-apples with Amazon's revenue-bearing definition.
Blended math:(Amazon NTB Sales + Shopify NTB Sales) / (Amazon Total Sales + Shopify Total Sales) per month. 12-month averages are dollar-weighted unless noted.
What's not in here: Cross-channel customer overlap. A Shopify first-time buyer who already bought on Amazon counts as "new" on Shopify — channel-level NTB is a directional signal, not a brand-level one.